Saturday, 31 March 2012

AAPL

This week AAPL closed into a new weekly channel high. Despite the selling pressure coming later into the week, AAPL managed to hang on to its weekly gains with weekly trend continuation. Referencing the chart below, we can see that AAPL generates an 'SE-C 599.55' which reflects some weakness coming into the short term bias of this market, or evidence of weakness of the short term trend. We can see this as AAPL closed below its 3 day pivot regression, which is what triggered the 'Type 2' Closing signal. Structurally, the market is still intermediate term bullish, with evidence of shorter term weakness. More importantly, to trigger a complete reversal of this market - or a liquidation event - we would really need to see a 'Type 1' Intraday momentum reversal signal, which was not the case in AAPL. Notice from the chart below how AAPL struggled to generate new 'short interest' as it failed to sell aggressively < 600 - an important psychological level for this market. The selling pushed the market back down to the 'top' of the previous weeks weekly high level as indicated by the 'blue' horizontal line. This is still a bullish market and so we should expect continuation of trend, although caution to the bulls at these levels. We can also observe the 'b-distribution' in the 'shape' of yesterdays (3/30) composition, which implies old inventory liquidation early in the day with new long-term buying to support the market, as evidenced by the 'b-shape' to the day. If the day timeframe shorts were strong enough in combination with the long liquidators of old inventory, they would have 'broken' the market. This was not the case. We still see long timeframe supportive buying in AAPL.



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